ANYONE dreaming of a white Christmas? Well, according to the data, your dream may very well come true with Fermanagh listed as one of the most likely counties in Ireland to see a sprinkling this festive season.
While the chances of a white Christmas in this part of the world are always slim, and remain so, Irish PR agency Legacy Communications has been analysing the data from the past ten years and have predicted the places most likely to see their seasonal snow dreams come true.
While Tyrone and Donegal came out joint top, with a 60 percent chance based on trends over the past decade, Fermanagh was third with a 50 percent chance. Cavan also made the top ten list, with a 40 percent chance.
The company used data from TimeAndDate.com and Met Eireann to make its percentage predictions, analysing when the number of Christmases when each county experienced both freezing temperatures and precipitation.
They also spoke to weather experts who have been watching more recent trends.
“Some weather signals are showing a risk of a colder spell of weather early in the winter which would increase the chances potentially of a cold spell in December,” said expert Alan O’Reilly.
“There are some signals that we could see some cold spells with high pressure out in the Atlantic blocking the weather systems coming from the West and seeing more of a northerly and easterly influence which gives us a chance of cold air coming down from Polar regions or Scandinavia.
“Your best chances for snow are always the north or the east. Generally, northern areas will always have a better chance, so Ulster counties because they’re closer to the northerly cold air. The closer you are to that cold air the better the chances are.”
Don’t be getting the sleighs out just yet, though. With the bookies odds for a white Christmas in Ireland, north or south, remaining the same as they were a month ago, with odds of 9/4 for Belfast, neither Met Eireann nor the Met Office forecasting any festive snow falls just yet.
In fact, while both meteorology agencies always caution against forecasts more than five days in advance, the long-range forecast from Met Eireann for the month ahead does indicate a mild and soggy rather than snowy festive season.
“High pressure is signalled to be come established closer to the southwest of Ireland with a weather westerly airflow signalled over the country,” it forecasts for the week of Monday, December 20 to Sunday, December 26.
“Conditions are signalled to be drier than normal over much of the country, with average rainfall likely in the north. Temperatures will likely be average of slightly above.”
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