THE people of Fermanagh and South Tyrone, were gearing up for a long count last week, with even the most veteran analysts expecting yet another close-run race between Sinn Féin and the Ulster Unionists.
This year was different, though. Gone were the recounts and down-to-the-wire results, with just a handful of votes separating the front runners. Instead, in the end, Sinn Féin’s Pat Cullen was celebrating her party’s most decisive ever win in Fermanagh South Tyrone (FST).
However, despite winning by over 4,000 votes – a landslide compared to the close margins of recent FST Westminster elections – Ms Cullen actually picked up less votes than her party colleague Michelle Gildernew in 2017.
So, what happened in FST to see such a significant shift in the local political landscape?
There were certainly a couple of factors in play, the first being this year’s historically low turnout.
Aside from its too-close-call results, FST is also famous for its traditionally strong turnout. Almost every Westminster election for the past decade has seen it well exceed 70 percent, with a high of almost 76 percent for Ms Gildernew’s narrow win over Tom Elliott in 2017..
Back in the 1970s and 80s, turnout almost reached 90 percent on several occasions.
Last Thursday, however, just under 66 percent of the local electorate went to the polls. While that may be a healthy figure for other constituencies, you have to go back to 1959 for a lower turnout in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
For much of Thursday evening, as news of a slow day at the polling stations across the county began to filter through, the talk was of how turnout would impact the result. Initially, many were of the opinion it would favour the UUP’s Cllr Diana Armstrong at the cost of Sinn Féin, a party ordinarily known for its skill at motivating its voting base.
However, as the counting continued into the early hours of Friday morning, it began to become clear it was unionists who had stayed home on Thursday, with Cllr Armstrong picking up over 1,600 votes less than her party colleague Mr Elliott in 2019 and over 4,000 less than he received in 2017.
It is unclear whether the short pre-election disagreement between the UUP and the DUP over fielding a single ‘unity’ candidate in the constituency impacted the local unionist turnout.
Another possible factor for Sinn Féin’s resounding victory may have been last year’s local constituency boundary changes.
Following a review by the Boundary Commission in 2023, the Fermanagh South Tyrone borders were redrawn to include areas like Moygashel and Mullaghmore, which had previously a part of Newry and Armagh.
This resulted in an additional 1,700 voters casting their ballots in FST this year.
It had been speculated this would boost the local nationalist vote, but until last week this theory had yet to be tested.
The fact these areas are within striking distance of Ms Cullen’s native Carrickmore will not have done any harm to her own personal support, either.
The question now is, what happens next? Was last week’s election an anomaly or has FST suddenly become a safe Sinn Féin seat?
Only time will tell if FST has finally lost its title of the most closely fought constituency in the UK.
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