Fermanagh’s population is falling

FERMANAGH is now facing a population collapse, which will have a profound impact on our already struggling public services.
As recently revealed by the ‘Herald, plummeting pupil numbers is one of the main reasons behind the decision to close two Enniskillen secondary schools.
The Council For Catholic Maintained Schools (CCMS) claimed the second-level student population in the county down was set to plummet by ten percent in the coming years, leading to its decision to close St Joseph’s St Joseph’s College and St Fanchea’s College.
Prompted by this claim, the ‘Herald decided to examine the population figures for the county, and found a very worrying trend.
The Registrar General’s most recent quarterly report has shown, for what is believed to be the first time, a greater death rate than birth rate in the Fermanagh and Omagh area.
While the area has seen slight population drops in recent years, this was due to an imbalance between the number of people moving to the area and the number of people leaving, not a difference in the number of people dying versus the number of babies born.
The report, which was only published in recent weeks by the NI Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA), covers the last quarter of 2024 and shows that between October and December last, there were 258 births in the area, and 274 deaths.
This accounts for a birth rate of 8.8, which was one of the lowest in the North, and a death rate of 9.4.
While a difference of 16 people over three months may not seem very dramatic, it is worrying in that it is part of a continuing trend over the past number of years where the balance between local births and deaths is continually tipping towards the latter.
During the same period in 2023, there were 289 births and 270 deaths; in 2022 there were 326 births and 252 deaths; in 2022 there were 355 births and 278 deaths; and in 2020 there were 357 births and 256 deaths.
The rate of decline may appear slow at the moment, but we have already been feeling the impact of an ageing population and declining youth population across the area.
From demand for care home and home care packages, to cuts to health and infrastructure, and now the closure of yet more schools, further falls in our population will do little to help stem the flow out of the county.
Indeed, population decline can be devastating on an areas, creating a vicious cycle of declining services, increased immigration, and a reduction in the attractiveness of the area as somewhere for people to move to.