Maurice Morrow outside the election count at Omagh RMG23
Even at this early stage all eyes are on the transfers and how things will play out for that sixth seat. It’s early, early days but it looks likely that DUP transfers will be decisive in deciding the outcome.
Disciplined vote managemnt could see Sinn Fein sneak a fourth seat but with the DUP polling very strongly and both candidates comfortably elected expect Rosemary Barton to get a good lift from Morow’s surplus and stay in the frame long enough to benefit from her running mate’s elimination.
Whether Richie McPhillips can get enough transfers down the line to stay in the race is a big imponderable — historically Sinn Fein supporters don’t readily transfer to their nationalist rivals – and the SDLP candidate must be wondering where his transfers will come from. Sinn Fein will be hoping that Michelle Gildernew’s surplus will be evenly enough distributed across their other three candidates to get all four over the line but it will be very, very tight.
As things stand now it looks like Foster, Morrow, Gildernw, Lynch, probably Flanagan and between Feely and Barton for that sixth seat with McPhillips and outside beat. At a push, Barton might just sneak it.
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